Car Thefts Have Declined in 2025. Will Insurance Rates Follow?

For the first time in years, Canada is seeing a meaningful decline in auto thefts. According to Équité Association’s First Half of 2025 Auto Theft Trend Report, national thefts dropped 19.1% compared to the same period in 2024. The shift comes after a surge in vehicle crime that cost Canadian insurers a record $1.5 billion in 2023 and spurred hundreds of millions of dollars in federal and provincial investments to combat auto theft. 

But for drivers hoping this dip will lead to cheaper car insurance rates, experts warn the reality is more complex. 

Auto thefts are trending down, but remain high 

Équité Association, which tracks national auto theft data, reports that 23,094 private passenger vehicles were stolen in the first half of 2025, a figure that is down from 28,549 in the same period last year. The largest declines were seen in the hardest-hit provinces: 

• Ontario: 9,600 thefts, down 25.9%
• Quebec: 3,889 thefts, down 22.2%
• Alberta: 4,411 thefts, down 12.5%
• Atlantic Canada: 910 thefts, down 9% 

Recoveries are also improving. Nationally, 56.5% of stolen vehicles were recovered, up from 53.1% in 2024, approaching pre-crisis levels. 

Équité credits the decline to collective efforts by law enforcement, federal agencies like Public Safety Canada, and the insurance industry, including investments in vehicle-tracking technology and targeted prosecutions. However, the report also warns that criminals are adapting, with a growing focus on chop shops, re-VIN schemes, and international parts markets. 

“Criminals continue to evolve their tactics to identify new funding opportunities in vehicle crime,” the report notes, cautioning that 44% of stolen vehicles remain unrecovered this year. 

Will insurance rates drop? 

Despite the encouraging statistics, a lower theft rate doesn’t automatically mean lower car insurance premiums. 

“Canada’s auto theft rates have soared in the last 10 years, adding to the cost pressures across auto insurance systems,” says Brett Weltman, spokesperson for the Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). “While theft frequency has dropped in the last year, the problem remains significantly above historical trends. However, it is far from the only factor contributing to rising auto insurance costs.” 

When setting rates, insurers consider a number of different factors and many continue to put upward pressure on premiums, including: 

• Repair costs: Up 22% since the pandemic as a result of both labour shortages and advanced vehicle tech.
• Vehicle prices: Weltman says new and used vehicle prices have soared by more than 61% and 82%, respectively.
• Severe weather: Catastrophic events increasingly lead to higher numbers of auto damage claims.
• Legal costs: Collision-related lawsuits in Alberta surged 48% between 2018 and 2022, now accounting for 20% of mandatory premiums.
• Tariffs: New tariffs on auto parts are pushing repair and replacement costs higher. 

“Auto theft losses did reach a record $1.5 billion in 2023, but severe weather is also playing a growing role as catastrophic weather continues to yield auto insurance claims for damages,” Weltman explains. 

Provincial dynamics and regulatory hurdles 

Even if theft continues to decline, provincial regulations may prevent immediate rate relief for drivers. Alberta, for example, has capped auto insurance rate increases, which can limit insurer flexibility and inadvertently reduce market competition. 

“Rate caps in provinces like Alberta have reduced insurer competition, lessening consumer choice and putting further upward pressure on premiums,” Weltman says. 

This means that while a decrease in theft helps stabilize the market, other cost drivers such as legal claims and repair expenses still heavily impact insurers’ ability to reduce rates. 

What drivers can do to save on insurance 

Although market forces are largely out of drivers’ hands, there are ways to potentially lower premiums: 

1. Shop around: Compare rates from multiple insurance providers to ensure that you’re getting the best price.
2. Install anti-theft devices: Immobilizers, tracking systems, and secure parking can help to reduce the risk of vehicle theft and sometimes earn you discounts in the process.
3. Review your coverage: Adjust coverage levels to match your vehicle’s age and use.
4. Bundle policies: Combine your home and auto coverage with the same provider to unlock savings. 

“Canadians can depend on their insurer to continue to protect what’s important to them,” says Weltman. “To help drive down their rates, drivers are always encouraged to shop around to find the policy that best meets their needs.”  

Will car insurance rates drop in 2025? 

The sharp decline in auto thefts in 2025 is a positive sign, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, where the problem was most acute. Yet premiums are unlikely to fall immediately, as insurers grapple with ongoing challenges caused by inflation, repair costs, severe weather claims, and legal pressures. 

While rising collision and repair costs may ease slightly as inflation cools, most signs point toward continued, but more moderate, increases. Insurance premiums remain elevated due to persistent systemic pressures well beyond auto theft. Without substantial policy changes or broader economic relief, Canadian drivers should plan for selective hikes, not decreases. 

For now, Canadians can take comfort in progress against organized auto theft, while still taking proactive steps to keep their own insurance costs as low as possible.